What We Got Wrong And Right About Ukraine — Business d’Or

  

On the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there has been a lot of commentary and events discussing the war’s implications and speculation about its future.

However, there has been little reflection on how many assessments made since late 2021 were incorrect. One of the most significant lessons of the war is that assessments must be better.

Some of the dominant projections and views made about the war have been proven wrong. For instance, some believed that Russia would not invade Ukraine or that if it did, it would only have minor aims in the Donbas.

Others believed that Western anti-tank weapons would be decisive, but they only helped Ukraine and did not defeat Russia. There were also projections that sanctions and export controls would crush Russia’s economy, but that has not been the case.

Some observers believed that China would not dare to help Russia, but it has in minor ways and could potentially provide more support in 2023.

Others believed that Putin would not risk a broader mobilization of Russia, but he has, and Ukraine has been able to mount a counteroffensive.

Additionally, there were worries that countries in the Middle East and North Africa would starve and Europe would freeze, but fortunately, neither has happened.

Surprises are part of war, but they may be a military-geopolitical myth.

The US and European intelligence communities were prescient in warning that Russia would invade, and some individuals had firsthand knowledge of the Russian military’s capabilities.

However, there have been economic and defense-industrial surprises, such as how Russia’s defense sector has struggled but still managed to incorporate Western microelectronics into its weapons.

There are some current and emerging narratives about the war worth exploring, such as the provision of Western combat aircraft to Ukraine and the belief that no end to the war is in sight.

Ultimately, the war could end with a negotiated armistice or cease-fire, or one of the combatants could suffer a total defeat and collapse.

As the war continues into 2023, there will likely be more surprises that confound dominant narratives.

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