What We Got Wrong And Right About Ukraine — Business d’Or
On the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there has been a lot of commentary and events discussing the war’s implications and speculation about its future. However, there has been little reflection on how many assessments made since late 2021 were incorrect. One of the most significant lessons of the war is that assessments must be better. Some of the dominant projections and views made about the war have been proven wrong. For instance, some believed that Russia would not invade Ukraine or that if it did, it would only have minor aims in the Donbas. Others believed that Western anti-tank weapons would be decisive, but they only helped Ukraine and did not defeat Russia. There were also projections that sanctions and export controls would crush Russia’s economy, but that has not been the case. Some observers believed that China would not dare to help Russia, but it has in minor ways and could potentially provide more support in 2023. Others believed that P...